Articles by Mike Overbo
According to a survey by Markitecture (via Ars Technica), only 6% of people polled plan to buy an iPhone in the next year. Only six percent, they say! You know, if they follow through, that could put Apple in front of Microsoft in market share, currently at 5.7% (via Canalys). The article doesn’t say if it was a global or national survey, however.
Markitecture notes that the RAZR had about 6% of the phone market at its peak. Ars Technica doesn’t note the margin of error, but 6% of the global phone market (around 1 billion phones) is 60 million phones. At $500 each that’s 30 billion dollars. Granted, not net profit. If Apple is looking for 20% profit margins, as they’re wont to do, it looks like they’d potentially grab about 6 billion dollars.
It’s starting to look like Jobs set the bar low in January when he announced he was looking for 1% of the global phone market. Of course, one doesn’t like to set goals and then miss them, it makes one look bad. But, that’s part of what makes watching Jobs fun. When they destroy the 1% goal, he’s going to act like the most astounded person in the world. Whaaaa?
Apple PR officially revealed that Steve Jobs will be doing the keynote on June 11th during Apple’s WorldWide Developer Conference. I know, he pretty much does it every year, so it’s not exactly groundbreaking earth-shattering news. But, it means he’ll probably trot out Leopard, the new version of Mac OSX.
Odds are very good that he’ll remind everyone about the iPhone too. I suspect he’ll probably put some of the lingering questions to rest about the iPhone. Hopefully he’ll tell us what day we have to get in line to purchase one. Since it’s WWDC, I’m guessing that he’ll announce some sort of SDK and official capacity for third party apps. Otherwise it would be like rubbing developer faces into mud: “Here’s a groundbreaking platform that changes everything that you can’t be part of! Besides buying one! And switching to Cingular!” Not likely; or at least, not for long. Personally I think we’ll see 3rd party applications in iTunes the day the phone is out.
John Gruber of Daring Fireball has a story similar to my recent Ballmer article except longer, more in-depth, and more eloquent.
Sling today released Slingplayer for Mac OSX. Having this done and in a stable state should make it easier for them to release a player for the iPhone….
The web had a bit of a news hiccup with the iPhone over the weekend, with various news reports saying that it was a bit slippery to use. At least one site has posted a retraction; it looks like Gizmodo had some fun rumor-smashing.
In a recent interview with USA Today, Steve Ballmer (CEO of Microsoft) stated several things, none of which are really news. He promised to not come out with a Zune phone, he made some claims about what a great CEO he was, etc. This quote interested me, though: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” That’s really interesting. He thinks they’ll see “2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.” Really, really interesting. According to Steve Jobs in his keynote this January, Apple is aiming for 1% of the phone market one year after the iPhone comes out. Pishposh! That’s just 10 million phones! At $500 each that’s just… oh wait. That’s $5 billion. By Ballmer’s own estimates, it’s $15 billion. And this is likely a zero-sum equation — people that get the iPhone probably won’t get a Windows Mobile phone.
Update:Macworld.co.uk seems to assert Microsoft only has about 5.6% of the mobile market. This puts another quote of his in perspective — “Would I trade 96% of the market for 4% of the market?” He doesn’t have 96% of the market, not in this segment anyway. He’s sweating bullets in this market segment.
In other news, he promised to not release a Zune with phone features, stating “It’s not a concept you’ll ever get from us.” I’m not sure I believe him — if Linux phones really have 3 times more market share than Windows Mobile, I’d be surprised if he didn’t have a team on it already.
Folks over at Mobile Guerilla spotted what appear to be the first pictures publicly available that were taken by the iPhone. The picture quality is very great on one picture, not so great on the other, but it gives a good idea of what can be accomplished with the 2 megapixel camera. The lens on the iPhone must be fairly decent — the first picture looks sharp; the 2 megapixel on my current Sony w810i is much more grainy by comparison.
All I can say is, if the pictures it takes look like the first picture linked, great! If the pictures it takes look like the 2nd picture linked, not so great. With the second photo, let’s hope that they were just testing how everything looks under horrible lighting conditions.
An Asian-Pacific Microsoft exec slams the iPhone, citing the lack of an Office suite. He also says “using it as a heavy messaging device will be a challenge,” presumably because he’s tried it already, for real
According to Wireless IT World, AT&T will market the iPhone to enterprise users. This is interesting to me, as there hasn’t been any positive word on editing MS Office files, and official knowledge remains scant regarding Outlook or Exchange compatibility, either currently or in the future. However, sources do indicate the iPhone will look bangin’ with a suit.
Engadget Mobile posted an internal Q&A on the iPhone for employees. Probably the most interesting bit is the ability to extend a contract by 2 years even if under contract…
