Rumors are flying today that Apple may have already hit the suddenly-not-so-outrageous-sounding 10 Million iPhones Sold goal set by Steve Jobs for 2008. Reader Reptile pointed us to Seeking Alpha’s IMEI tracking coverage:
The consensus estimates for iPhone sales figures for Apple’s Q4 (calendar Q3) were calling for approximately 4 million units. It now appears that Apple has sold at least 7 to 7.5 million iPhones in Q4—that’s nearly 80% above consensus. Apple has far surpassed even Gene Munster’s bullish estimates of 5 million iPhone sales in Q4 according to the data. [...] Coming into the quarter, Apple had already sold 2.42 million iPhones. Thus, 7.6 million 3G iPhones sold puts Apple above 10 million units for the year.
Magic 8-Ball? Most likely
Apple’s quarterly conference call, scheduled for Oct. 21, should put some official numbers to the iPhone tally, but we think it’s safe to say they’re doing pretty fine. NPD, after all, has just released their numbers which show, according to Apple Insider, that the iPhone is now the #2 selling handset in the US (trailing only the cockroach-like ubiquity of the RAZRv3). CIO.com is going so far as to say the iPhone is the #1 selling smartphone in the US!
Who’s this hurting? The 30% who dumped their original carriers to get an iPhone AT&T:
The bulk of new iPhone owners who switched — 47% — left Verizon Wireless, while another 24% dumped T-Mobile and 19% switched from Sprint.
Ouch! Analysts are touting the T-Mobile Android/Google G1 and Verizon Blackberry Storm as possible blood-clotters for the other networks. However, while iPhone 2.x is already on the market (and Macworld 2009’s potential further revelations just around the corner), the G1 and Storm are racing to catch up with what are likely to be very public beta-devices of their own. And they’re light-years further along than the caught-flat-footed Windows Mobile 7 and Palm OS 2 Nova…
What do you think? Did Apple hit on a winning formula this year? Or was it all advertising sizzle and no steak? Can the other carriers/manufacturers come back? Or could it be that while everyone else was working on increasingly complex little smartphones with poor UI running on hobbled, outdated OS’s, Apple snuck in a real mobile computing platform tucked away behind iPod-like ease of use?
Following on yesterday’s Net Applications MobileSafari metrics, which showed ever increasing iPhone browser share, TUAW now tells us Investor Village has found yet another obscure path to sales deviation. This method involves tracking the IMEI (International Mobile Equipment Identity) code on each individual iPhone sold, and using it:
researchers have figured out that Apple has manufactured at least 5,649,000 iPhone 3Gs. Add that to the 2.4 million 1st generation iPhones sold in 2008, and you arrive at 8 million iPhones.
Now, we’re admittedly as mathlexic as Fake Steve himself, and we’re still not entirely convinced this isn’t tea leaf reading of one sort or another, but we’ll likely know for sure come September 9th “Let’s Rock” event.
Apple promised us 10 million sold in 2008 , and with the holiday season still coming, looks like they may not just make those numbers, but break them.
Confusion. Confusion. Did Steve Jobs say Apple would sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008, or during 2008?
What’s the diff? About 6 months and a 3+ million head start.
See, the first scenario means Apple has roughly 18 months — from the June 29th, 2007 release day to December 31st, 2008 — to move the 10 million units. The second scenario allows for just 12 months — from January 1st to December 31st, 2008 — to move the same number. Clear? No? Don’t worry. Even the Macalope is confused.
What’s interesting is that while the first scenario — the 18 months — does count the initial 6 month honeymoon surge of 3+ million, that ends up making continued sales a little more pessimistic — only 6+ million for the entire calendar 2008. The second scenario allows for increasing sales over time, something Apple and their shareholders no doubt expect as more countries, and 3G come online.
Speaking of dozens of more countries and a the most anticipated new gadget on the planet, Macworld’s Jason Snell sums up his thoughts for the 10 Million iPhone March thusly:
In my back-of-the-envelope exercise, Apple sells 10.2 million iPhones in calendar year 2008. And I stress, these are extremely conservative numbers. If I had to place a bet, I’d probably say that Apple will sell more like 2.2 million phones in the current quarter, more like 3 million in the following quarter, and five million in the holiday quarter. That guess adds up to almost 12 million iPhones in calendar year 2008.
Conservative is right. In fact, Apple is famous for being conservative, and they’re predicting “only” 10 million.
My opinion? iPhone 3G will be a monster.
What do you think?
