Could Apple’s iPhone be destined for 3rd place in smartphone marketshare by 2012, trailing Nokia/Symbian’s 39% and Google Android’s 14.5% with a paltry 13.7%? That’s what some analysts at Gartner are telling ComputerWorld, with Nokia already in the global lead, and Google’s wallet, cloud-services, rapid iteration of the OS, and variety of form-factors and UIs from multiple manufacturers. Rounding out the other players are Windows Mobile with 12.8%, RIM BlackBerry with 12.5%, various Linux mobiles with a collective 5.4%, and Palm webOS with 2.1%.
iPhone, projected at 71.5 million unites sold, doesn’t have Nokia’s existing footprint or Google’s services, but here’s the thing: a) it has Apple’s still-unmatched 360 degrees of ecosystem integration, b) will likely continue to improve at the same rate it has since the original iPhone 2G running 1.x with no apps or services in 2007, and c) will remain wildly profitable, and that profit share will remain more important to Apple than raw marketshare.
TiPb has discussed this before, of course. Back in August we heard that while the iPhone currently only has 8% of the market, it gets 32% of the revenue. Further back in January, we heard Apple was making double the profits of Nokia.
So, okay, if the Mayans are wrong and we’re all still here in 2012, maybe Apple will only be making 30% margin on a 13.7% share. But that might still be killer compared to very little on a 39% share.
Just compare Apple’s current financial results to the rest of the industry for an indication of how that works…
Stalwart Apple analyst Gene Munster is back, this time predicting the iPhone will hit multiple US carriers within an year — specifically Verizon — as well as expanded video offerings from iTunes — including a subscription service akin to satellite or cable, and an updated Apple TV to go with it.
Oh, and flying unicorns.
We joke. Slightly. Of course we want all these things too — and more — but we have a feeling that that’s all there is to some of these analyst reports — a bit of logical deduction and some surveys combined with what any of us would want:
“For various reasons the company moved from an exclusive relationship with French wireless carrier Orange to a multi-carrier model,” Munster said. “In France, the company now enjoys dramatically higher market share (in the 40 percent range vs. about 15 percent in ROW) than in countries with exclusive carrier agreements (such as AT&T in the U.S. where the iPhone has market share in the mid-teens). We believe Apple is seeing the increased unit sell-through more than offset the slightly (~10 percent) deteriorated economics per unit involved in non-exclusive agreements.”
So, expect it only when you see it.
[via AppleInsider]
Barrons (via MacRumors) claims an unnamed analyst has seen the near-legendary Apple iTablet and thinks:
The machine impresses with its display of hi-def video content, says the veteran analyst, who asked not to be identified. “It’s better than the average movie experience, when you hold this thing in your hands.”
And what’s more, competitors know that we know that they know that it’s coming soon:
“It’s close enough now to a final design that in Asia, there’s no other product in the waiting room or in the bullpen,” said the analyst. “There are dozens of ODMs [original device makers] making products for Lenovo and other PC makers that are all waiting to see what the Apple product is.”
So does this mean just as the iCloned iPhones are waning, the iReplicated iTablets are just waiting to launch? We’ll know come September. Or October. Or… January to March 2010!
(And yes, we still have polls open on both when it will ship, and what OS is will run, and whether or not it will succeed – get voting!)
That’s what some are taking away from the analyst briefings we linked to last week. Apple would have only one hardware platform, but different versions of the software for different SKUs of the iPhone.
Sigh. It’s hard enough to convince people that software isn’t just math, and math isn’t free, without dodgy OS stripping schemes artificially creating crippled, low-end versions. Apple thus far has known this — Mac OS X comes in only two versions, client and server. Likewise, they tend to have their free/cheap regular software like iPhoto, and pro apps like Aperture.
Could we see a “pro” version of the iPhone OS? Perhaps, but while the guts of the device would likely stay the same for compatibility and component cost reasons, it’s hard to see no hardware differentiation like more storage, better camera, tweaked casing. After all, that’s what Apple’s historically done with MacBooks and MacBook Pros.
If Apple did go with pure software differentiation, might also make for yet another interesting chapter in the Jailbreak cat-and-mouse game…
Apple believing their software differentiates the iPhone from OTHER smartphones is something they’ve made a point of making a point about since launch (and likely what they meant again this time). But differentiating within the iPhone platform? Well, we just hope they’re leaning towards iPhone Home Basic, Home Premium, Professional, and Ultimate. Because, you know, people just loved that about Windows Vista.
Business Insider is quoting Piper analyst Gene Munster as saying:
No New iPhones [at Apple's World Wide Developers Conference]. As indicated in today’s press release, we believe Apple will focus on the new version of Mac OS X, Snow Leopard at WWDC. While some investors may be expecting Apple to launch redesigned iPhones at WWDC, we do not anticipate the launch in early June. Rather, we expect Apple to host a special event in late June or early July to launch a family of iPhones. We continue to expect multiple models, possibly a high-end iPhone with improved specs from the current version and a low-end version with lower capacity and fewer features along with a reduced pricing plan. Such a model could also be used in Apple’s launch of the iPhone into China as soon as the end of summer ‘09.
Analysts are about as accurate as weathermen when it comes to predictions one month out, so take this with the usual Mac Pro sized grain of salt. Apple has used the last two WWDC events to showcase the iPhone, and introduced the iPhone 3G and MobileMe at WWDC 2008. If they stick to pattern, we should see an update on iPhone 3.0, the next generation iPhone, and perhaps a MobileMe refresh at WWDC 2009.
However, WWDC being an developer-focused event, it’s not impossible Apple will focus on their Mac OS 10.6 Snow Leopard and iPhone OS 3.0 exclusively, leaving the hardware for a sexier consumer event later in the month.
As to a family of iPhones, we still don’t see Apple breaking the software platform, which means a low end iPhone could only be a low-storage iPhone 3G (8GB?) at $99?, with the next generation unit (at 16GB and 32GB, along with other new features) taking the established $199 and $299 positions.
Apple Insider, covering Piper Jaffray’s favorite Apple analyst, Gene Munster, passes along:
Sales of 22 iPhones per stores is down from 28 iPhones per store during November, which suggests a 21 percent decline in sales sequentially compared to the Street’s view of a 24 percent drop. However, Munster is betting that expanded international availability will help offset some of these domestic declines and is therefore modeling iPhone sales for the March quarter to be relatively flat at 4.4 million units.
Of course, rampant speculation of a next generation iPhone announcement in June wouldn’t have anything to do with it… Like last year…
This is not a drill! We finally have someone, likely with no actual knowledge of the engineering or design of the next gen iPhone, going on record as saying:
his sources indicate Apple is readying a new iPhone that will ship in June with an upgraded camera that could deliver big improvements to the iPhone experiences, including both still and video capabilities “with possibly another camera on the front for video chat.”
iChat on the iPhone has been a perennial favorite among rumormeisters before every new launch, real and imagined, just like iPhone nano speculation. Speaking of which…
Apple Insider’s coverage of Barclay’s Capital analyst Ben Reitzes’ predictions doesn’t stop there, of course, as we also get the prerequisite low end iPhone nano-ized rumors, the high end video iPhone Pro rumors.
Some of these are logical inferences, some are wishful thinking. We’re thinking — why let analysts have all the fun? What are you wishing for? Do we want Mobile iChat video? Could AT&T even support it in iPhone numbers? And if Apple isn’t going to fracture the platform with different screen sizes, are features a realistic way to differentiate their offerings?
Welcome to iPhone Analysts vs. the Magic 8-Ball, where we take the often outlandish, sometime surreal predictions of iPhone analysts and pundits, blogeratti and the ‘net elite, and compare them to the potentially equally precise prognostications of a… magic 8-ball (running on an iPhone, of course!)
Mike Abramsky, seasoned veteran of of RBC weighs in on an iPhone 3G “Pro” with the following specs, and the Magic 8-Ball chimes in with its pedictions in italics:
- iPhone 3G “Pro” nickname. As I see it, yes
- Retail price to stay the same $199/$299. My reply is no
- Wireless UMTS/HSUPA, Wifi, Bluetooth. My reply is no
(Note: our understanding is that HSUPA is to uplink what HSPDA is to downlink, and someone’s mixing up their UMTS technologies there and really means a 3.5G system)
- 3.2MP camera with flash and video recording. Don’t count on it.
- 16GB/32GB storage. Most likely
- 0.1″ thinner. Yes
- AT&T to get it before the rest of the world. Most likely.
- Growth will not accelerate. Don’t count on it.
Okay, so both of their predictions seem a little hinkey to us, but what do we know? Bring on WWDC 2009, and until then, thanks everyone for playing Analyst vs. Magic 8-Ball and be sure to leave your predictions, and your thoughts on their predictions, in the comments!
[Via Apple Insider. Thanks to Jimmie for the tip!]
Before WWDC in June of 2008, when Apple announced the iPhone 3G, supplies of the original iPhone (now called 2G) began to dry up. Apple killed the iPhone 2G rather than allow two versions of the device to be on the market at the same time.
So why is every internet rumor and it’s quotable analyst predicting Apple will once again introduce a low-end $99 iPhone this spring/year/at Walmart? Why do they think Apple will bring back the iPhone 2G? (which is essential what a cheap, 4GB, EDGE, non-GPS iPhone would be). Sure, the still-ongoing economic problems are a concern to every consumer electronics maker. Granted, non-subsidized markets like India have been difficult for the premium iPhone to penetrate. Okay, Steve Jobs said they wouldn’t leave an umbrella beneath the iPhone for competition to try to exploit. FINE!
But here’s the thing: Since when has Apple done “cheap” anything? Aren’t these the same analysts that have been “predicting” an iPhone nano? An Apple Netbook? A bargain basement MacX mini-tower?
There are some markets Apple chooses not to participate in. And Apple doesn’t know how to make cheap products that aren’t crap.
Sure, maybe they’ll re-introduce the iPhone 2G. Maybe they’ll make a Netbook. Maybe Steve JOBS will appear on Dancing with Stars. Maybe I’ll look really stupid when all of the above happens this year. Maybe not.
My guess? If Apple introduces new hardware like they’re expected to this summer, maybe this time they’ll let the iPhone 3G hand around as an 8GB lower-end model. We’ll see if supplies start drying up around the May/June time frame.
Meanwhile, instead of breaking out my magic 8-ball again, I’m going to ask YOUR opinions. What do you think? Will Apple bring back the iPhone 2G? Will they go cheap?
(Thanks to Mike for sending in yet another analyst prediction, prompting this question).
Rumors are flying today that Apple may have already hit the suddenly-not-so-outrageous-sounding 10 Million iPhones Sold goal set by Steve Jobs for 2008. Reader Reptile pointed us to Seeking Alpha’s IMEI tracking coverage:
The consensus estimates for iPhone sales figures for Apple’s Q4 (calendar Q3) were calling for approximately 4 million units. It now appears that Apple has sold at least 7 to 7.5 million iPhones in Q4—that’s nearly 80% above consensus. Apple has far surpassed even Gene Munster’s bullish estimates of 5 million iPhone sales in Q4 according to the data. [...] Coming into the quarter, Apple had already sold 2.42 million iPhones. Thus, 7.6 million 3G iPhones sold puts Apple above 10 million units for the year.
Magic 8-Ball? Most likely
Apple’s quarterly conference call, scheduled for Oct. 21, should put some official numbers to the iPhone tally, but we think it’s safe to say they’re doing pretty fine. NPD, after all, has just released their numbers which show, according to Apple Insider, that the iPhone is now the #2 selling handset in the US (trailing only the cockroach-like ubiquity of the RAZRv3). CIO.com is going so far as to say the iPhone is the #1 selling smartphone in the US!
Who’s this hurting? The 30% who dumped their original carriers to get an iPhone AT&T:
The bulk of new iPhone owners who switched — 47% — left Verizon Wireless, while another 24% dumped T-Mobile and 19% switched from Sprint.
Ouch! Analysts are touting the T-Mobile Android/Google G1 and Verizon Blackberry Storm as possible blood-clotters for the other networks. However, while iPhone 2.x is already on the market (and Macworld 2009’s potential further revelations just around the corner), the G1 and Storm are racing to catch up with what are likely to be very public beta-devices of their own. And they’re light-years further along than the caught-flat-footed Windows Mobile 7 and Palm OS 2 Nova…
What do you think? Did Apple hit on a winning formula this year? Or was it all advertising sizzle and no steak? Can the other carriers/manufacturers come back? Or could it be that while everyone else was working on increasingly complex little smartphones with poor UI running on hobbled, outdated OS’s, Apple snuck in a real mobile computing platform tucked away behind iPod-like ease of use?
