Rumors are flying today that Apple may have already hit the suddenly-not-so-outrageous-sounding 10 Million iPhones Sold goal set by Steve Jobs for 2008. Reader Reptile pointed us to Seeking Alpha’s IMEI tracking coverage:
The consensus estimates for iPhone sales figures for Apple’s Q4 (calendar Q3) were calling for approximately 4 million units. It now appears that Apple has sold at least 7 to 7.5 million iPhones in Q4—that’s nearly 80% above consensus. Apple has far surpassed even Gene Munster’s bullish estimates of 5 million iPhone sales in Q4 according to the data. [...] Coming into the quarter, Apple had already sold 2.42 million iPhones. Thus, 7.6 million 3G iPhones sold puts Apple above 10 million units for the year.
Magic 8-Ball? Most likely
Apple’s quarterly conference call, scheduled for Oct. 21, should put some official numbers to the iPhone tally, but we think it’s safe to say they’re doing pretty fine. NPD, after all, has just released their numbers which show, according to Apple Insider, that the iPhone is now the #2 selling handset in the US (trailing only the cockroach-like ubiquity of the RAZRv3). CIO.com is going so far as to say the iPhone is the #1 selling smartphone in the US!
Who’s this hurting? The 30% who dumped their original carriers to get an iPhone AT&T:
The bulk of new iPhone owners who switched — 47% — left Verizon Wireless, while another 24% dumped T-Mobile and 19% switched from Sprint.
Ouch! Analysts are touting the T-Mobile Android/Google G1 and Verizon Blackberry Storm as possible blood-clotters for the other networks. However, while iPhone 2.x is already on the market (and Macworld 2009’s potential further revelations just around the corner), the G1 and Storm are racing to catch up with what are likely to be very public beta-devices of their own. And they’re light-years further along than the caught-flat-footed Windows Mobile 7 and Palm OS 2 Nova…
What do you think? Did Apple hit on a winning formula this year? Or was it all advertising sizzle and no steak? Can the other carriers/manufacturers come back? Or could it be that while everyone else was working on increasingly complex little smartphones with poor UI running on hobbled, outdated OS’s, Apple snuck in a real mobile computing platform tucked away behind iPod-like ease of use?
Good news? Looks like there really is a new “Home” option for iPhone activation in the US. Bad news? Looks like it has nothing to do with the iPhone being sold unlocked. Apple Insider, who broke the rumor, updates as follows:
In order to service these customers, a special home pre-qualification web site has been set up so that users can find if they are qualified by AT&T for a phone unit subsidy. Users can set up their account at home so that everything is ready to go when they make their iPhone 3G purchase at a retail store. The new “Home” option that retail employees are seeing on their EasyPay terminals is designed to allow them to use this home pre-qualification step to accelerate the transaction of a new iPhone 3G. That also indicates there is no impending potential for unlocked iPhone 3G sales in the US, although this is expected at some point.
Apple Insider is also sticking to the 32GB SKU, but maybe only after the holidays (though presumably that means short term, not, you know, any point after the holidays and into future months/years…)
Magic 8-Ball?
- Unlocked iPhones in the US? Very Doubtful
- 32GB iPhone in the *near* future? It is certain
Interesting! Can’t wait to see how this one pans out!
Welcome to iPhone Analysts vs. the Magic 8-Ball, where we take the often outlandish, sometime surreal predictions of iPhone analysts and pundits, blogeratti and the ‘net elite, and compare them to the potentially equally precise prognostications of a… magic 8-ball (running on an iPhone, of course!)
This edition checks back post-Let’s Rock to see was right, and what’s still left!
- Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple’s “Let’s Rock” Event disappoint? Yes TIE!
- Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple release new MacBooks (Pro/Air)? Very doubtful TIE!
- Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple unveil a new Apple TV DVR? Ask again later WASH!
- Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple unveil an iTablet/MacBook Touch? Very Doubtful 8-BALL WINS!
- iLounge: Is the thicker, more tapered iPod Touch for realz? Yes TIE!
- Ars Technica: Will iPhone 2.1 contain “secret” features? Don’t count on it 8-BALL WINS!
- MacRumors/Kevin Rose: Is Magnetosphere the new, trippy iTunes Visualizer? It is certain TIE!
- Microsoft/Seinfeld: Will the new TV commercial help Vista? Very Doubtful 8-BALL WINS! (yeah, it’s like that!)
- Kevin Rose: Apple Event on September 9th? “Very doubtful” KEVIN WINS!
- Kevin Rose: Firmware 2.1 debuting on sleeker iPod Touch? “Most likely” TIE!
- Kevin Rose: iTunes 8 with music recommendations? “Cannot predict now” (asked again…) Most likely TIE!
- Kevin Rose: New, candy-bar Nano with rounded widescreen? “It is certain” TIE!
- Kevin Rose: Massive iPod price drops across the line? “Don’t count on it” TIE!-ish (price cuts, but nothing great)
- Kevin Rose: Mac OS X with Blu-Ray? “Ask again later” (asked again…) “Ask again later”
- iDealsChina: GPS for the iPod Touch? “Cannot predict now” (asked again…) “Reply hazy” WASH!
Welcome to iPhone Analysts vs. the Magic 8-Ball, where we take the often outlandish, sometime surreal predictions of iPhone analysts and pundits, blogeratti and the ‘net elite, and compare them to the potentially equally precise prognostications of a… magic 8-ball (running on an iPhone, of course!)
This edition rounds up some of the mountain of rumors piling up in advance of Tuesday’s “Let’s Rock” event. Let’s get it on!
- Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple’s “Let’s Rock” Event disappoint? Yes
- Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple release new MacBooks (Pro/Air)? Very doubtful
- Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple unveil a new Apple TV DVR? Ask again later
- Apple Insider/Shaw Wu: Will Apple unveil an iTablet/MacBook Touch? Very Doubtful
- iLounge: Is the thicker, more tapered iPod Touch for realz? Yes
- Ars Technica: Will iPhone 2.1 contain “secret” features? Don’t count on it
- MacRumors/Kevin Rose: Is Magnetosphere the new, trippy iTunes Visualizer? It is certain
- Microsoft/Seinfeld: Will the new TV commercial help Vista? Very Doubtful
And for those still keeping score on the last round, the current standings are after the jump!
Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to the first in a new series from TiPb, where we take the often outlandish, sometime surreal predictions of iPhone analysts and pundits, blogeratti and the ‘net elite, and compare them to the potentially equally precise prognostications of a… magic 8-ball (running on an iPhone, of course!)
This edition kicks off with Gene Munster, who boldly states Apple will sell 13 million iPhone 3Gs this year, and 45 million next.
Magic 8-ball? “Most likely”
Next up we have Diggster Kevin Rose, with a multitude of maybes:
- Apple Event on September 9th? “Very doubtful”
- Firmware 2.1 debuting on sleeker iPod Touch? “Most likely”
- iTunes 8 with music recommendations? “Cannot predict now”
- New, candy-bar Nano with rounded widescreen? “It is certain”
- Massive iPod price drops across the line? “Don’t count on it”
- Mac OS X with Blu-Ray? “Ask again later”
Lastly, iDealsChina is rumormongering GPS for the iPod Touch? “Cannot predict now”
Who’s right? What’s left?
When a story breaks — if it breaks — we’ll come back and compare results. And we’re betting on a pretty even race, you?
(Special thanks to K. Michaels for the inspiration).
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