Apple is set to announce their Q1 results at 5pm EST (2pm PST) and TiPb will bring you any and all iPhone related news that comes of it. In the meantime, analysts are saying that regardless of how well (or poorly?) the iPhone did during the holiday quarter, it did better than the Android G1. Quotes Apple Insider:
Based on polls of recent cellphone buyers, the analyst firm believes T-Mobile USA may have sold upwards of 300,000 of its touchscreen G1 handsets from launch in late October through to the end of 2008. In contrast, even Morgan Stanley’s prediction of about 1.75 million iPhone 3G units sold through AT&T is about 5.9 times greater than what T-Mobile is believed to have managed.
(Note: That’s the US T-Mobile, not the German T-Mobile which is busy boosting iPhone sales with heavy discounts.) Are the analysts right? Is this comparing international Apples to domestic Oranges… er… G1s? We’ll have to wait in see. Regardless of what the iPhone sells, Bullish Cross (via Daring Fireball) reminds us:
Apple’s use of subscription-based accounting for iPhone revenue has significantly hurt its share price — casual investors who are only looking at Apple’s GAAP results don’t realize how much revenue they’ve deferred.
With the launch of the iPhone 3G, Apple dropped the price point to a carrier-subsidized $199 for the 8GB model. Naturally, that led the usual suspects to complain it wasn’t cheaper. It should be $99. It should be free. They should pay us $199 to take it!
Somewhat — if only slightly — more seriously, however, that’s pretty much what Apple Insider says Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty’s studies are showing, with fully 46% turning their nose up at the current price point. She claims that sales of the iPhone 3G were half as strong in September and October when compared to July and September, and suggests:
To spike sales, Huberty suggests that Apple should take a cue from recent rumors and halve the price to $100, which she believes could at least double iPhone sales numbers. Apple’s prized profit margins likely wouldn’t be an issue, she claims, as the company only needs to reduce the cost of manufacturing and selling an iPhone by 17 percent to achieve the intended effect.
In addition to the launch buzz, pent up demand due to lack of iPhone 2G supplies prior to 3G launch, Kaufman analyst Shaw Wu points out that gift cards for the iPhone may cloud holiday numbers, with revenue from those sales not being counted until the iPhones are actually picked up and activated later.
Of course, everyone loves free stuff. However, few people would want to work for free or give away what they make without recompense, but who ever said the intertubes (and analysts) have to be self-consistent? So the question remains, is the $199 iPhone still too expensive? If so, what price should it be?
Everybody has been playing the guessing game on how many iPhone 3Gs Apple has sold. The numbers have been pitted at 11 million this year and 25 million in 2009 on the low end and 13 million this year and 45 million in 2009 on the optimistic side. Well according to people familiar with Apple’s production plans, it looks like Apple is preparing for the high end of the spectrum, upping their yearly production to around 40 million.
As it stands, Apple is pumping out 150,000 iPhones a day which roughly equates to 39 million a year (5 days a week, 52 weeks a year). Apple should have no problem selling these iPhones because of the international rollout and the Best Buy initiative, greater availability leads to more sales.
What does need to be fixed is the activation process, analysts deem the current process as the bottleneck that limits efficiency. Analysts are also pointing at a cheaper iPhone model to be announced during Macworld. That’ll certainly help Apple reach its ambitious goals.
We at TiPb think it’s entirely feasible to reach 40 million by 2009. Even after the initial hype subsides, there are still plenty of new markets to reach. If the iPhone begins to come in colors, new models, and more polished apps the iPhone 3G will continue to stay fresh for a long while. Now if Apple ever decided to sell the iPhone online again, well then, 40 million will be easy as pie. What do you think?
ReadVia
Steve Jobs announced Apple would sell 10 million iPhones in 2008. Up until June, given waning sales, 3G expectations, and large-scale unavailability from Apple and carriers alike, it didn’t look possible.
Enter $199. Jobs said it. I said it. Casey said it. Pretty much everyone and their blog said it. Now the analysts are saying it to:
Sales BOOM!
In total [RBC's Mike Abramsky] expects Apple to sell 14 million iPhones by the end of the year [...] For 2009 though Abramsky is only predicting sales of 24 million, a drastic difference from Piper Jaffray estimates of 45 million. Observes note however that Piper is factoring in unannounced sibling iPhones, which could make the device more affordable for the average person.
They’re talking iPod scale numbers now, folks.
What do you think? Can Apple do with the iPhone what they did with the iPod?
Read Via
Monday was analyst prediction day, as RBC Capital analyst Mike Abramsky and Banc of American analyst Scott Craig separately provided the following guestimates on Apple’s next gen iPhone:
Abramsky predicts him some amped up CPU, more memory, and the faster 3G speeds that allow for higher def (HD?) video, voice capture, streaming HD video, real-time GPS, and other Trekkie goodness. All this would, coupled with a mid-2008 release, would let Apple blow past 10 million, and hit a potential 11 million unites sold by year end.
For his part, Craig skipped features and stuck to the money: “We believe that demand in the U.S. may have been impacted by the anticipation of a new 3G phone…” (Perhaps because of continued analyst bombardment of same?) Craig also sees a 3G handset in 2008 as necessary to complete the 10 million handset march.
Check out AppleInsider for more.
